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Playoff Math: Playing yo-yo with the thin red line

24 September 10:06 am

Playoff Math: Playing yo-yo with the thin red line

By Jeff Crandall

The Fire's dip back below the red line on Saturday night was one of two moves in the Eastern Conference playoff race. With just over a month to play, certain teams are circling in on a playoff berth while others are battling for position.

The latest edition of Playoff Math awaits you below: 

1) New York Red Bulls
Current Points: 51 (15-9-6)
Games Remaining: 4 (2 home / 2 away)
Last 5 Games: WWWWL (12pts)
2013 Home/Away Record: 10-2-3 / 5-7-3
Maximum Possible Pts: 63
Average Opponents Pts: 43.0
Remaining Schedule: 9/29 @ SEA, 10/5 vs. NE, 10/20 @ HOU, 10/27 vs. CHI

Rundown: New York watched Montreal lose and Sporting KC win on Saturday, knowing a home game against FC Dallas awaited the following day. It wasn’t a great match but New York utilized a 76th minute own goal from Erick to earn another home result and somewhat quietly move into first place in the Supporters Shield race in the process.

The Red Bulls continue to benefit from the two teams chasing them having Champions League matches but a top of the conference clash awaits them Sunday night when they visit Seattle in a match that could go a long way to decide the first silverware of the season.

A New York win or tie Sunday combined with Fire and Philadelphia Union losses would see the Red Bulls become the first team to qualify for the postseason.

2) Sporting KC
Current Points: 48 (14-9-6)
Games Remaining: 5 (2 home / 3 away)
Last 5: WWWLL (9pts)
2013 Home/Away Record: 8-4-3 / 6-5-3
Maximum Possible Pts: 63
Average Opponents Pts: 34.8
Remaining Schedule: 9/27 vs. PHI, 10/5 @ CLB, 10/9 at HOU, 10/18 vs. D.C., 10/23 vs. OLI**, 10/26 @ PHI

Rundown: Despite a scare, Sporting earned a point against Real Esteli in Champions League play at midweek and will just need another draw vs. Olimpia to guarantee final passage. In MLS play, they fought hard for a 2-1 win at Toronto took benefit of Montreal’s defeat to Vancouver to move into sole possession of second place in the East.

Sporting holds a game in hand over Red Bull but faces three matches against teams fighting for their playoff fate over the next two and a half weeks. Though their remaining schedule is easiest in the East, it will be a battle to stay in second and potentially push for the top spot.

3) Montreal Impact
Current Points: 45 (13-9-6)
Games Remaining: 6 (2 home/ 4 away)
Last 5 Games: LLWDW (7pts)
2013 Home/Away Record: 9-3-3 / 4-6-3
Maximum Possible Pts: 63
Average Opponents Pts: 38.2
Remaining Schedule:  9/24 vs. HER** 9/28 @ CHI, 10/4 @ HOU, 10/12 vs. NE, 10/16 @ LA, 10/19 vs. PHI, 10/26 @ TFC

Rundown: So what’s going on with Montreal? Their 3-0 loss to Vancouver marked their third straight across all competitions and second straight at home in MLS. Like their performances this season, the Impact have a mixed bag through the end of the year. On one hand they hold two games in hand over New York and one over Sporting but face a crucial Champions League match against Heredia on Tuesday night ahead of Saturday’s game vs. the Fire.

Montreal still has a shot in the Champions League but not a great one… Will they turn their complete focus on the Fire and playoff race or try to double-dip this week?

4) Houston Dynamo
Current Points: 43 (12-10-7)
Games Remaining: 5 (3 home / 2 away)
Last 5 Games: WWLDL (7pts)
2013 Home/Away Record: 8-3-3 / 4-6-4
Maximum Possible Points: 58
Average Opponents Pts: 39.8
Remaining Schedule: 9/25 vs. WC**, 9/28 @ NE, 10/4 vs. MTL, 10/9 vs. SKC, 10/20 vs. NY, 10/24 @ AU**, 10/27 @ D.C.

Rundown:  After going on an end of summer slump, Houston has run off two straight wins the past two weeks to move firmly into fourth place in the East. They play a crucial Champions League home match Wednesday night vs. W. Connection before opening up a four-game stretch all against teams in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Three of those four matches are at home so after weathering a pretty difficult storm, its safe to say more than anyone, the Dynamo control their own fate in terms of being able to move up into one of the top three spots.

5) New England Revolution
Current Points: 40 (11-11-7)
Games Remaining: 5 (2 home / 3 away)
Last 5 Games: WLLDW (7pts)
2013 Home/Away Record: 7-5-3 / 4-6-4
Maximum Possible Points: 55
Average Opponents Pts: 43.0
Remaining Schedule: 9/28 vs. HOU, 10/5 @ NY, 10/12 @ MTL, 10/19 vs. CLB, 10/27 @ CLB

Rundown: One week New England is complaining about an offside goal being called back, the next they’re benefiting from it and not saying a peep. This was the case on Diego Fagundez’s tying goal in their 2-1 win over D.C. United. By virtue of that victory and the Fire’s defeat at Columbus, the two sides traded places in the East race this weekend.

The good news for the Fire is that New England has the toughest remaining schedule in the East, with a huge showdown vs. streaking Houston on the horizon this weekend. Back-to-back trips to New York and Montreal follow that clash and could define the Revs season if they don’t manage it the right way.

6) Chicago Fire
Current Points: 39 (11-12-6)
Games Remaining: 5 (2 home / 3 away)
Last 5 Games: LWDLD (5pts)
2013 Home / Away Record: 9-4-2 / 2-7-4
Maximum Possible Pts: 54
Average Opponents Pts: 34.8
Remaining Schedule: 9/28 vs. MTL, 10/4 @ D.C., 10/12 @ FCD, 10/19 vs. TFC, 10/27 @ NY

Rundown:  The Fire lost a tough 3-0 result at Columbus on Saturday. It was a game the team went in with the mindset of taking three points and even after going down 1-0, they looked able to do it. Bakary Soumare’s red card made that hope near impossible and as the Fire pushed forward they got caught out twice more.

They now welcome a struggling Montreal side to Toyota Park Saturday and should remember the situation they faced the Impact in back in August -- days after a disappointing U.S. Open Cup defeat to D.C. United, the Fire rebounded with a 2-1 win, a game that stands as one of the team’s biggest results of the season.

While a 3-0 loss at this point in the season can be discouraging, perspective is important as the Fire remain just one point out of the top five. It is imperative for the team to take their remaining two home matches and find a way to get two results on the road to ensure they won't have to depend on other teams for a postseason berth.

7) Philadelphia Union
Current Points: 39 (10-10-9)
Games Remaining: 5 (2 home  / 3 away)
Last 5 Games: LLDLD (2pts)
2013 Home/Away Record: 6-4-5 / 4-6-4
Maximum Possible Points: 54
Average Opponents Pts: 32.8
Remaining Schedule: 9/27 @ SKC, 10/5 vs. TFC, 10/12 @ D.C., 10/19 @ MTL, 10/26 vs. SKC

Rundown: The Union were idle this past weekend and will hope to have worked out the kinks that have him on the poorest form out of any team in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Unfortunately for them, they face a huge match Friday night away to a Sporting side that can put themselves on the brink of a postseason berth with a win.

A loss in this match would be devastating to the team’s chances but six points from their following two matches vs. Toronto and D.C. would certainly keep them afloat going into the final two weeks of the season.

8) Columbus Crew
Current Points: 35 (11-14-5)
Games Remaining: 4 (2 home / 2 away)
Last 5 Games: WWLWL (9pts)
2013 Home / Away Record: 7-5-3 / 4-9-2
Maximum Possible Points: 50
Average Opponents Pts: 42
Remaining Schedule: 9/29 @ FCD, 10/5 vs. SKC, 10/19 @ NE, 10/27 vs. NE

Rundown: The Crew continued their late-season run under interim head man Brian Bliss with a resounding 3-0 win over the Fire on Saturday. There’s no doubt that the Crew need help from other teams but their attitude is in the right place to make a late-season run.

Every game is a must-win for the Crew from here on out and they’ll shift their focus to a visit to FC Dallas where they haven’t won since their MLS Cup championship season in 2008.